Let’s review the house-price journey we travelled through last the last couple of years – 2024 and 2025 – to see where we are now.

Notaire’s de France reported that, nationally, prices grew on average by 4.2% year-on-year (2024) and declined for the first 9 months of 2025. But, since then, there has been an uptick in sales volumes and prices.  Where foreign buyers were prominent, such as the South of France prices rose fastest and, nationally, sale of high value properties rose in the last quarter. Normandy house prices were stable and offered opportunities for negotiation for cash-rich buyers. Since 2021 average costs per m² for houses in Normandy have risen from €1,700/m² to €2,051/m² in mid-2024 – a jump of 30% plus – but remaining flat since!

Most real estate pundits ascribe this growth to location amenities, transport links, jobs growth and consistent interest from overseas buyers, especially the UK. 2026 could be the year to pick up a bargain!

THE PROPERTY PRICE OUTLOOK FOR NORMANDY IN 2026

 So, what’s the outlook for Normandy? These are my best guesses. Property prices per metre² are likely to remain stable at the current level in this area of Calvados. The median selling price/m² was €2,230[1]  at the close of 2023 for houses in Calvados. It’s now a little lower – at least for a while. (The table above shows the properstar.co.uk data for December 2024).

Why might they remain stable? First, the drop in prices has probably reached its floor. It was the result of a high interest rates and lack of affordability of mortgages, not a fall in demand. Here is how it happened. At the beginning of 2022, the Government introduced a new law in France which restricted new mortgage loans to a maximum of 25 years (previously you could obtain a loan over 35 years) and capped the amount that could be borrowed (including for fees and insurance) to 35% of the borrower’s income. This is called “taux d’usure” and is calculated before tax and takes into account all other mortgages, loans and credit cards. The objective of the new law was to reduce consumer debt. It failed to hit its target. The situation was made worse by rises in interest rates to combat inflation driven by the post-COVID impact and the Ukraine War.

The outcome of this policy blunder was to undermine the funding for the housing market and trigger a fall in housing transactions from 1.2MN down to 1.0MN. That is my understanding of why prices fell in general. Add to that, rising interest rates – now on a stable, lower level – and the fall in house sales is understandable.

Second, the main house price rises are in regions where foreign buyers have been active. As mentioned above, Normandy is one of those areas. Foreign buyers had the advantage of being cash buyers and were able to negotiate favourable prices. While this may continue to be the case in 2026, more French buyers are also likely to return to the market.

Third, underpinning this situation is the outlook for 2026, which I characterise now as ‘Cautious Optimism’. As I wrote last year, as long as interest rates across the Eurozone remain high, property transaction levels will be depressed along with property prices because people, especially younger people, have trouble getting credit. One estimate is that mortgage lending fell around 30% across the EU in 2023[2]. So,2024, represented the low level. My expectation is that sales and prices will now rise, as interest rates fall.

2026 is still a very good time to buy, but it won’t last forever. It’s likely that property prices in Normandy are likely to rise in the longer term. Properties in most areas are good value for money. France as a whole has seen prices rise 126% since 1966[3]. The UK has risen 145% over the same period. But value-driven property prices alone are not a sufficient inducement to encourage more people into an area. If they were, people would be flocking to Romania and Bulgaria. The possibility of well-paid jobs, good public services and schools are also essential ingredients which Normandy offers.

[1] https://immobilier.statistiques.notaires.fr/prix-immobilier?typeLocalisation=DEPARTEMENT&codeInsee=14&typeBien=MAI&neuf=false

[2] https://www.fortierfinance.com/finance-outlook-france/european-interest-rates-outlook-2024/

[3] https://www.euronews.com/2023/03/07/europes-hottest-property-markets-where-have-house-prices-risen-the-most